China has launched work on a vast and hotly debated hydropower project on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra River in southeastern Tibet, triggering fresh concerns in India and Bangladesh over its potential to disrupt regional water security, impact fragile ecosystems, and intensify existing geopolitical tensions. This ambitious initiative marks a significant escalation in Beijing’s upstream activities, deepening regional concerns about the future of shared river resources in South Asia.

On Saturday, Chinese Premier Li Qiang inaugurated a multi-billion-dollar hydropower venture in Nyingchi, a region of critical strategic importance located near the contested border with India’s Arunachal Pradesh, underscoring both the project’s geopolitical weight and its symbolic assertion of presence in the sensitive Himalayan zone. The dam is set to rise along the Yarlung Tsangpo River—known downstream as the Brahmaputra—highlighting both the scale of China’s infrastructural ambitions and the sensitive geopolitical terrain in which it unfolds. This location, nestled in the rugged terrain of the eastern Himalayas, is not only ecologically fragile but also geopolitically charged, given the ongoing border tensions between China and India.

Planned as part of China’s broader vision to transform Tibet into a renewable energy hub, the mega-dam project is tied directly to Beijing’s national climate targets, especially its pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. As reported by China’s official Xinhua News Agency, the massive infrastructure plan involves the development of five linked hydropower stations and carries a staggering price tag of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, or about $167 billion—placing it among the most costly and ambitious energy projects China has ever undertaken. Upon completion, it is expected to surpass the capacity of the world-renowned Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River—currently the largest hydropower plant globally—positioning the new dam as a potential benchmark for scale and energy output in the global renewable energy sector.

The electricity generated from the facility is slated to power large swaths of China’s inland provinces while addressing energy needs in Tibet itself. Yet, the sheer magnitude of the project, coupled with its high-altitude location in the fragile Himalayan region, has raised significant alarm among downstream nations over potential environmental and hydrological disruptions. Both India and Bangladesh, heavily reliant on the Brahmaputra for agriculture, drinking water, and fishing-based livelihoods, fear that unilateral upstream activity could disrupt the river’s natural flow, especially during monsoon and dry seasons, jeopardizing the water security of millions.

In January, India formally raised its concerns with Beijing, urging it to honor international norms and protect the vital interests of downstream countries that rely extensively on the Brahmaputra River for water security and livelihoods. “India will continue to monitor developments closely and take necessary steps to safeguard our national interests,” the Ministry of External Affairs stated. Bangladesh has also expressed growing concern over potential declines in water flow and sediment deposits—factors essential to sustaining the fertility and ecological balance of its vulnerable delta region.

China, in response, has consistently downplayed these concerns. In December, the Chinese Foreign Ministry asserted that the project “would not adversely affect downstream countries,” and reiterated Beijing’s commitment to maintaining diplomatic communication with its neighbors.

Yet, beyond diplomatic reassurances, environmental experts remain deeply wary. Conservationists warn that large-scale construction in the seismically active and environmentally delicate Tibetan plateau could trigger landslides, disrupt fragile ecosystems, and lead to irreversible loss of biodiversity. The region, often referred to as the “Third Pole” due to its vast glacial reserves, is highly vulnerable to climate change, making the dam’s location particularly risky.

Strategically, the project underscores a growing pattern of water being weaponized in regional rivalries. The Brahmaputra’s origin in Chinese-controlled Tibet has long been a source of unease for India and Bangladesh, but the current development marks a significant escalation. It unfolds against the backdrop of increasing Sino-Indian friction, particularly in the Himalayan borderlands where both countries have fortified their military presence following fatal clashes in recent years.

As construction accelerates, the Brahmaputra mega-dam is poised to become not just an engineering marvel, but also a critical geopolitical flashpoint—one that brings into sharp focus critical questions surrounding the future of cross-border water management, the viability of large-scale infrastructure in ecologically vulnerable regions, and the delicate balance of geopolitical power across South Asia.

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